Here we sit May 26th in the midst of a Pandemic the likes of which we have not seen since the Polio problems of the 1950’s and it’s an election year. So what’s gonna happen?
A little background, I am a data person and have been looking at data from all kinds of sources for election predictions since Jesse Ventura ran for election in Minnesota. At one point I developed some software that predicted successfully where City Council elections in St Paul were going to fall. In 2016 I saw the path for an Electoral College victory for Trump over Clinton where everyone else was predicting a near landslide for Hillary. So I am not unfamiliar with looking at information and coming to conclusions that turn out to happen.
Covid-19 Conspiracy theories and the effect on the election. In many respects I am not surprised by the fact that there are many “stories” going around about how the “Pandemic” is a hoax. Further, that many even think and say that the Democrats are responsible in some manner in order to swing the elections.
However, when you look at the facts, it’s Trump who has been saying for many months now that we have an “invisible enemy” when speaking about Covid. While he hasn’t directly or even indirectly indicated that the Democrats, other than Obama, are responsible for the initial reaction of closing the economy and pumping Tens of Trillions of dollars into a falling economy.
Further looking into the facts, you’ll find he has wanted the Federal Reserve to do exactly what they have done, slash interest rates. He wanted stimulus checks to go out to people, shut the country down, huge surge in unemployment payments, etc..
When it comes to the stimulus checks, if you got one via mail it had his name on it and if you got direct deposit then you got a letter on White House stationary with his name on it. This in political terms is pure genius as it, much like Ventura Dollars, puts your name in front of every voter in the country and even those that don’t vote got letters from the “President”/Candidate.
The idea that this is somehow being manipulated by Democrats is either the worst idea the Democrats could have come up with or false. People have quickly forgotten that Trump has rarely held press conferences, but since the start of this he’s been on TV for several hours as he gives conflicting information about what’s going on. Meanwhile, the Democrats did what they did in 2016 and anointed a candidate with a behind the scenes manipulation of the process and give the people Joe Biden as their presumptive candidate. With the lack of the ability for campaigns to continue as normal, the person who has benefited the most has been the Candidate on the Republican side of things; he’s on TV daily and Joe well he is in his basement putting his feet in his mouth. I’ve come to the conclusion that the Democrats are not smart enough to have figured out much less implemented what has been described in any of the DEMOCRAT CONSPIRACY theories.
Next we need to take into account the Bernie factor. There are lots of very unhappy people that a candidate like Bernie didn’t get selected, and some are saying was pushed from the stage by the Democrat elite.
To a certain extent that is Bernie’s problem in that he is not a Democrat. He has run, been elected and is seated as an Independent Candidate and Senator. He has no party affiliation so why should the Democratic Party help in any manner a candidate who is not a card carrying member of their party? They owe him nothing and it showed. At the same time it is really unreasonable of people to believe that things would be different than they were in 2016. To expect an Independent to win the nomination of a Political Party, be it Republican or Democrat, is simply put a Pipe Dream.
Bernie made a mistake after 2016; he failed to take his people and form his own political party. He clearly had the votes because many who would have voted for him voted for Trump instead to teach the Democrats a lesson. It’s not only seen in the presidential election but also the House and Senate election results as well which left the Republicans in charge for a single season. Had he created his own party he would have had a major movement not seen since the 1960’s and he would be on the ballot, his issues would still be out there. He would certainly take Democrat votes but he would also steal back the simply Pissed off with both party people who would vote for him to show their party that they don’t own their vote. Bernie would have made this a real 3 way presidential election like was seen when Ross Perot ran.
The result is many people who would have voted for Bernie with happiness are going to face a choice. Hold my nose and vote Biden or cast my ballot from one of the other dozen parties on the ballot. Many are not going to hold their nose and will cast their vote for another party like a Libertarian or Green party candidate.
Nothing has changed for the incumbent. He has the advantage at this point on so many levels that it is hard to predict that the Democrats can overcome them. His base is solid behind him. Even when pointing out his lies which are well documented they are not going to vote for Biden. That number has not changed since election day more than a couple of percentage points over the course of 3+ years. While his overall numbers have gone up and down and the further you get into democrat circles he is the devil incarnate the fact remains that since his election a solid 27-30% of people like him and want him to continue. That is a good starting point for him and a hard number for a Democrat or any candidate to overcome. Granted Biden also has a solid 25-30% voters for him it’s a matter of where they are located and the final middle road voters.
So we are sitting here with Biden roughly 30% guaranteed vote and Trump another 30% vote and a solid 40% that haven’t yet made up their mind but are probably leaning one direction or another or going to vote for an Alternative Party to the standard.